In a stunning turn of events, Derek Carr announced his retirement from the NFL on Saturday. Carr was still recovering from a shoulder injury and seemed to be at odds with the Saints’ front office. A clean break was for the best and the Saints now get to move on to the Tyler Shough era. Let’s look at the fantasy implication of Carr’s sudden retirement for the entire offense.
Saints Quarterback Room
The Saints spent the No. 40 overall pick on Shough, giving him the best chance of starting Week 1. The other contenders on the roster are Jake Haener and Spencer Rattler. The pair of former Day Three picks ranked nearly dead last in the league in both EPA per dropback and completion percent over expected.
If Shough enters the NFL and is the worst quarterback in the league, he will still be in the same ballpark as his competition in New Orleans. That makes him a fairly good bet to start all 17 games. Before Carr retired, Saints reporter Nick Underhill said, “I have Shough at 80 percent or higher odds to start 80 percent of the games this year.” Rattler or possibly even Haener could get some playing time late in the year if Shough is a disaster, but the job is his to lose.
Tyler Shough Rookie Profile
Shough was a seven-year college quarterback, getting his start at Oregon as Justin Herbert’s backup. He eventually transferred to Texas Tech but couldn’t stay healthy, resulting in three partial seasons. He closed out his NCAA time with a breakout season at Louisville where he threw for 3,195 yards, 23 scores, and six picks. At 6’5/219, Shough has the build of a gunslinger but operates more like a point guard. His pressure to sack rate (9.3 percent) and turnover worthy play rate (1.8) were both top-15 in the country last year. Because he took care of the ball so well, 92 percent of Shough’s dropbacks turned into pass attempts, the 15th-highest rate in college football.
Shough’s deep attempt rate of 15 percent was in line with that of Cam Ward, but he was not nearly as potent as the No. 1 overall pick on these throws. Pro Football Focus graded Shough as their No. 31 passer on deep shots. His completion rate of 36.7 percent ranked 73rd out of 150 qualified passers. Shough graded as a top-10 passer on intermediate throws but attempted that at nearly the lowest rate in the country. He made his money on short throws, putting up 1,322 yards and 10 touchdowns on these attempts, both of which ranked top 10 in the nation.
The former Cardinal ran a stellar 4.61 Forty at the combine but rarely showed off that speed in college. He ran for just 132 yards and one score last year. Shough is ultimately a distributor with a low floor and ceiling, but he’s also free in all formats. He makes for a great flyer in dynasty leagues and is a viable QB3 in Best Ball.
Saints Fantasy Outlook
While a seventh-year, second-round quarterback doesn’t sound like a fun time for his skill position teammates, Shough’s profile is that of a passer who can at least get the ball in his receivers’ hands at a high clip. That will start with Chris Olave. The former first-round pick saw 44.4 percent of his targets on short throws last year. He led the Saints in targets, catches, and yards on short attempts despite playing in just eight games. Olave has finished top 15 in ESPN’s Open Score in every year of his career. He ranks 46th in NFL history in receiving yards through 39 games (his current total). That sandwiches him between Amari Cooper and Tee Higgins. All of our fancy stats and historical comparisons say Olave is a good wide receiver with the potential to be great, although that dream is fading by the year. Olave is a safe bet for a high target share and still has the potential to be the star we thought he was when New Orleans drafted him with the No. 11 overall pick. Coming off the board as a mid-range WR3 in early fantasy drafts, Olave remains a target.
Rashid Shaheed, on the other hand, is not in as good of a spot. Of his 40 targets in 2024, 37.5 percent came on deep shots, giving him the fourth-highest deep target rate in the league. He is coming off a season-ending meniscus injury and the Saints’ presumptive starter ranked 10th in deep passing grade out of the 12 quarterbacks who were drafted. Shaheed is still the clear favorite to be the Saints’ WR2, but his ability to flip fantasy matchups in one play will be muted with Shough under center.
Last but not least, the relentless targeting of Alvin Kamara has no end in sight. Kamara ranked second in the NFL in yards per route run (1.8) last year and led all running backs in targets (89). He ran the third-most slot routes among running backs and paced the league in targets beyond the line of scrimmage for a halfback. The rookie will have no issues peppering Kamara with targets and, in turn, PPR points this year.
